After a historic year of increased demand and skyrocketing home prices, many are wondering what’s to come for the 2022 real estate market. Of course, predictions can vary slightly depending on the source. There’s also a variety of opinions behind the assertions. We’ll take a closer look at reports from Zillow, Freddie Mac, and the Home Buying Institute to gain a better understanding of what’s to come in 2022 and the reasons behind it.
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Zillow Believes the Market is Cooling Off
An August 2021 report from Zillow states that the current trajectory of the market is “cooling down” from “white hot”, to still burning “red hot”. However, “slowing monthly appreciation is not expected to be echoed in slower annual growth until early 2022, with year-over-year growth in the Zillow Home Value Index expected to end 2021 up 19.9% from the end of 2020 and continue accelerating to 20.1% in January 2022 before beginning to slow down.”
One reason, Zillow claims is influencing the historic market we are in, has to do with millennials reaching home buying age. Millennials born between 1989 and 1993 are currently reaching their 30s – the time when most look towards homeownership. The already upset market could not handle this sudden demand, thus creating even higher competition.
Freddie Mac States No Crash in Sight
Currently, high house price growth has been supported by increased demand due to low mortgage rates, disposable after-tax income that has risen during the current recession and a major shortage of housing supply relative to our population. According to Freddie Mac, the seller’s market could be coming to a close, without a crash in sight. They believe that current homebuyers are becoming exhausted in the high-competition market, and are therefore backing off, creating less demand. “That’s reflected in our home sales forecast, which has total home sales declining to 6.9 million in 2021 and 2022 after reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.6 million and 7.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021, respectively,” says Freddie Mac.
The Home Buying Institute Predicts a Reprieve From the Competition
The Home Buying Institute claims that the home buying market in 2022 will return to favoring buyers, at least slightly. The HBI cites three reasons why the market might be better for buyers in 2022. First, According to Realtor.com, data collection from the largest 50 metro areas indicate more homes coming on the market, thus giving homebuyers a slight reprieve from the competition. The competition has been heavy, leaving many buyers exhausted. Second, they state that the market is cooling overall. Competition has been on the rise in what seems like every facet of the industry, and that could be slowing down. Third, the average price of homes could see a significant reduction. Again, this means less competition and a happier environment for homebuyers.
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The market is influenced by a variety of factors. Here are a couple disruptors that have been shaking some ground. To start, the business of real estate is catching up to the world of technology, streamlining transactions like never before. Platforms like Transactly help save agents time, allowing them to focus on things that matter. In the age of technology, work-from-home life, and lighting-speed communication, it’s vital agents stay ahead of the curve. Additionally, the millennial generation reaching home buying age has shown a significant impact on the market. Reaching their mid 30s, these individuals are hitting the market in droves, creating an even steeper level of competition.
Summary of 2022 Real Estate Trend Predictions
Overall, it doesn’t appear that the housing market is in for a crash. On the contrary, it appears that the historic market is leveling off a bit in 2022. For sellers, their upper hand over the market could be dropping by August 2022. However, the cooling of the market overall doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Happier home buyers make agent’s jobs easier. While for homebuyers, home prices are technically coming down, the reduction is from a 17.7% increase to an 11.7% increase. Fortune mentions that despite this slight reprieve from price increases, the market is still troublesome for the average homebuyer, who will not be receiving an 11.7% wage increase from their employers.